Mixed Races, Locks & Campaigning: My Predictions for the 2026 Oscars

Mixed Races, Locks & Campaigning: My 2026 Oscar Forecast

Last year’s Academy Awards unfolded along an unpredictable trajectory, with each precursor ceremony revealing its own biases before a wave of controversies spanning representation debates, resurfaced tweet  and AI‑related backlash upended the campaigns of several front‑runners. The result was a slate of unexpected snubs and surprise victories at the 2026 Oscars. This season, by contrast, feels markedly more stable: a field with clearer frontrunners, a handful of genuinely competitive races and only a few categories still searching for a lock. One of the strongest indicators of a Best Picture front‑runner is the film that leads the nominations tally—a position claimed this year by Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, which shattered records with an extraordinary 16 nominations. Yet despite its all-rounded strength, its repeated losses in top categories at comparable awards shows have led many to believe that One Battle After Another holds the stronger path to the night’s biggest prize. While One Battle After Another and Hamnet claimed the top Golden Globe honours, One Battle After Another went on to dominate the DGA, BAFTA  and PGA awards complicated only by Sinners securing the SAG ensemble win. These precursors suggest that One Battle After Another may indeed be the closest thing to a Best Picture lock, though voting dynamics across dozens of categories always leave room for late‑stage surprises. In this article, I lay out my predictions for the major film categories—who is poised to win, who could upend the race and who, in my view, most genuinely deserves to take home the honour.

Acting Awards

It’s an exceptionally strong year for acting, but with only one category presenting anything close to a true lock: Best Actress. Jessie Buckley’s soul‑stirring performances as Agnes in Hamnet has swept every major precursor from the Golden Globes to the BAFTAs placing her in a commanding position to take home the Oscar. Meanwhile the lead actor category demonstrates a mixed narrative. While Timothée Chalamet from Marty Supreme was the assumed front-runner, it was not until the SAG and BAFTA awards that a race was created with Michael B. Jordan from Sinners and Robert Aramayo from I Swear winning their respective award shows. This leaves us to a race between Timothée Chalamet and Michael B. Jordan Both; both actors have delivered powerful performances with Jordan’s excellence demonstrated through double acting  and Chalamet’s comedic yet emotionally-sublte portrayal of an ambitious ping pong player in pursuit of greatness. More complicated, however, are the supporting acting races, with a two-way race between Sean Penn and Stellan Skarsgård for the actor category and a three-way between Amy Madigan, Wunmi Moussaku and Teyana Taylor for the supporting actress category. Realistically, the awards could be given to anyone in each of these categories and only then can a judgment be made on what type of acting really stood out to the academy this year.

Additional Note: In 2026, we also celebrate a new milestone in Oscar history, as the Norwegian  film Sentimental Value becomes the first non‑English language film to score four acting nominations (Renate Reinsve, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Stellan Skarsgård, and Elle Fanning). Adding to this landmark moment, Secret Agents star Wagner Moura joins the field with his own nomination, signalling a new era in Hollywood where non-English language performances have received proper recognition. 

Technical Awards

Technical categories as always are voted by industry experts and are shaped by precision, spectacle and ingenuity, with several films staking clear claims. F1 is the frontrunner for sound and possibly visual effects, for its immersive racing sequences and high-octane pacing making it a technical marvel. Meanwhile editing, an award largely tied to Best Picture, is most likely to be claimed by One Battle After Another for its stunning well-edited filming sequences and effective transitions between scenes.  One Battle After Another is also likely to earn attention for cinematography, having won the BAFTA and ASC awards, recognising its dynamic camera angles and use of vista vision. However, this can easily be challenged by Sinners who also presents a strong technical proposition around the use of colour, visual design and composition. Despite this, one of the biggest anticipated winners of the night across several technical categories is likely to Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein. It is currently the frontrunner for 3 technical categories reinforced by previous wins – These categories include Production Design, Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling. Overall, the field is competitive, but these films collectively demonstrate technical excellence in 2026 and it’s unliked that any win would be perceived as controversial or not meticulous.

Musical Awards

Musical storytelling has made a striking return to the Oscars this year, with Sinners delivering some of the strongest cinematic music in recent years and emerging as a clear frontrunner for Original Score. Ludwig Groanse’s blues-infused compositions blend modern and traditional elements, culminating in a surreal musical sequence that perfectly integrates narrative and performance, earning the film consistent wins at major precursors including The Golden Globes and BAFTAs. For Original Song, K-pop sensation Golden has dominated the awards conversation as much as the charts; Its global popularity and inventive structure making it one of the year’s biggest hits probably hinting for a revival of Kpop. While there is always a chance the Academy could reward I Lied to You, the consistent recognition of Golden across earlier ceremonies makes it a safe pick. Meanwhile, films like Train Dreams and Bugonia continue to demonstrate the creative possibilities of music in film, but the momentum clearly favours Sinners and Golden as the leading contenders this awards season.

Writing Awards

Screenwriting remains a cornerstone of cinematic recognition, and 2026 has begun to clarify the races despite a tumultuous WGA season marked by strikes and controversies. One Battle After Another’s victory in the Adapted Screenplay category at the WGA positions it as the clear frontrunner, creating less hope for films like Hamnet which have failed to properly capture the attention of voting groups. In Original Screenplay, Sinners continues to dominate following its WGA win, Ryan Coogler’s mix of social commentary, character depth and inventive storytelling giving it a strong edge. Nevertheless, It was Just an Accident and Sentimental Value also remain in contention, offering great case of well-constructed foreign language screenplays that blend slight comedic elements with emotional depth, but the awards season so far suggests Sinners and One Battle After Another are the films to beat, with both races showing strong momentum.

The table below summarises my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards – highlighting the likely winners, the potential surprises and my own perspective on who I would like to see taking the prize.

The 98th Oscars: My Predictions for Film Categories