Mixed Races, Locks & Campaigning: My 2026 Oscar Forecast
Last year’s Academy Awards unfolded along an unpredictable trajectory, with each precursor ceremony revealing its own biases before a wave of controversies spanning representation debates, resurfaced tweet and AI‑related backlash upended the campaigns of several front‑runners. The result was a slate of unexpected snubs and surprise victories at the 2026 Oscars. This season, by contrast, feels markedly more stable: a field with clearer frontrunners, a handful of genuinely competitive races and only a few categories still searching for a lock. One of the strongest indicators of a Best Picture front‑runner is the film that leads the nominations tally—a position claimed this year by Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, which shattered records with an extraordinary 16 nominations. Yet despite its all-rounded strength, its repeated losses in top categories at comparable awards shows have led many to believe that One Battle After Another holds the stronger path to the night’s biggest prize. While One Battle After Another and Hamnet claimed the top Golden Globe honours, One Battle After Another went on to dominate the DGA, BAFTA and PGA awards complicated only by Sinners securing the SAG ensemble win. These precursors suggest that One Battle After Another may indeed be the closest thing to a Best Picture lock, though voting dynamics across dozens of categories always leave room for late‑stage surprises. In this article, I lay out my predictions for the major film categories—who is poised to win, who could upend the race and who, in my view, most genuinely deserves to take home the honour.
Acting Awards
It’s an exceptionally strong year for acting, but with only one category presenting anything close to a true lock: Best Actress. Jessie Buckley’s soul‑stirring performances as Agnes in Hamnet has swept every major precursor from the Golden Globes to the BAFTAs placing her in a commanding position to take home the Oscar. Meanwhile the lead actor category demonstrates a mixed narrative. While Timothée Chalamet from Marty Supreme was the assumed front-runner, it was not until the SAG and BAFTA awards that a race was created with Michael B. Jordan from Sinners and Robert Aramayo from I Swear winning their respective award shows. This leaves us to a race between Timothée Chalamet and Michael B. Jordan Both; both actors have delivered powerful performances with Jordan’s excellence demonstrated through double acting and Chalamet’s comedic yet emotionally-sublte portrayal of an ambitious ping pong player in pursuit of greatness. More complicated, however, are the supporting acting races, with a two-way race between Sean Penn and Stellan Skarsgård for the actor category and a three-way between Amy Madigan, Wunmi Moussaku and Teyana Taylor for the supporting actress category. Realistically, the awards could be given to anyone in each of these categories and only then can a judgment be made on what type of acting really stood out to the academy this year.
Additional Note: In 2026, we also celebrate a new milestone in Oscar history, as the Norwegian film Sentimental Value becomes the first non‑English language film to score four acting nominations (Renate Reinsve, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Stellan Skarsgård, and Elle Fanning). Adding to this landmark moment, Secret Agents star Wagner Moura joins the field with his own nomination, signalling a new era in Hollywood where non-English language performances have received proper recognition.
Technical Awards
Technical categories as always are voted by industry experts and are shaped by precision, spectacle and ingenuity, with several films staking clear claims. F1 is the frontrunner for sound and possibly visual effects, for its immersive racing sequences and high-octane pacing making it a technical marvel. Meanwhile editing, an award largely tied to Best Picture, is most likely to be claimed by One Battle After Another for its stunning well-edited filming sequences and effective transitions between scenes. One Battle After Another is also likely to earn attention for cinematography, having won the BAFTA and ASC awards, recognising its dynamic camera angles and use of vista vision. However, this can easily be challenged by Sinners who also presents a strong technical proposition around the use of colour, visual design and composition. Despite this, one of the biggest anticipated winners of the night across several technical categories is likely to Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein. It is currently the frontrunner for 3 technical categories reinforced by previous wins – These categories include Production Design, Costume Design and Makeup and Hairstyling. Overall, the field is competitive, but these films collectively demonstrate technical excellence in 2026 and it’s unliked that any win would be perceived as controversial or not meticulous.
Musical Awards
Musical storytelling has made a striking return to the Oscars this year, with Sinners delivering some of the strongest cinematic music in recent years and emerging as a clear frontrunner for Original Score. Ludwig Groanse’s blues-infused compositions blend modern and traditional elements, culminating in a surreal musical sequence that perfectly integrates narrative and performance, earning the film consistent wins at major precursors including The Golden Globes and BAFTAs. For Original Song, K-pop sensation Golden has dominated the awards conversation as much as the charts; Its global popularity and inventive structure making it one of the year’s biggest hits probably hinting for a revival of Kpop. While there is always a chance the Academy could reward I Lied to You, the consistent recognition of Golden across earlier ceremonies makes it a safe pick. Meanwhile, films like Train Dreams and Bugonia continue to demonstrate the creative possibilities of music in film, but the momentum clearly favours Sinners and Golden as the leading contenders this awards season.
Writing Awards
Screenwriting remains a cornerstone of cinematic recognition, and 2026 has begun to clarify the races despite a tumultuous WGA season marked by strikes and controversies. One Battle After Another’s victory in the Adapted Screenplay category at the WGA positions it as the clear frontrunner, creating less hope for films like Hamnet which have failed to properly capture the attention of voting groups. In Original Screenplay, Sinners continues to dominate following its WGA win, Ryan Coogler’s mix of social commentary, character depth and inventive storytelling giving it a strong edge. Nevertheless, It was Just an Accident and Sentimental Value also remain in contention, offering great case of well-constructed foreign language screenplays that blend slight comedic elements with emotional depth, but the awards season so far suggests Sinners and One Battle After Another are the films to beat, with both races showing strong momentum.
The table below summarises my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards – highlighting the likely winners, the potential surprises and my own perspective on who I would like to see taking the prize.
The 98th Oscars: My Predictions for Film Categories
| Award Category | Predicted Win | Could Win | Should Win |
| Best Picture | One Battle After Another | Sinners | One Battle After Another and Sinners – Indecisive! |
| Director | Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another | Ryan Coogler, Sinners | Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another |
| Actresss | Jessie Buckley, Hamnet | Rose Byrne, If I had legs I’d kick you | Jessie Buckley, Hamnet |
| Actor | Michael B. Jordan, Sinners | Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme | Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme |
| Supporting Actress | Amy Madigan, Weapons | Wunmi Moussaku, Sinners | Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value |
| Supporting Actor | Sean Penn, One Battle After Another | Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another | Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value |
| Writing (Adapted Screenplay) | One Battle After Another | Hamnet | One Battle After Another |
| Writing (Original Screenplay) | Sinners | Sentimental Value | It was Just an Accident |
| International Film | Sentimental Value (Norway) | The Secret Agent (Brazil) | Sentimental Value (Norway) |
| Animated Feature Film | KPop Demon Hunters | Zootopia 2 | Arco |
| Music (Original Score) | Sinners | One Battle After Another | Sinners |
| Music (Original Song) | Golden – KPop Demon Hunters | I Lied To You – Sinners | I Lied To You – Sinners |
| Cinematograph | Sinners | One Battle After Another | One Battle After Another |
| Sound | F1 | Sinners | Sirât |
| Production Design | Frankenstein | Sinners | Frankenstein |
| Film Editing | One Battle After Another | F1 | One Battle After Another |
| Visual Effects | Avatar: Fire and Ash | F1 | Sinners |
| Makeup & Hairstyling | Frankenstein | Sinners | Frankenstein |
| Costume Design | Frankenstein | Sinners |
Frankenstein |


The Brutalist is a monumental masterpiece that could very well earn its respect as one of the greatest and most ambitious films of the 21st century. Directed by Brady Corbet, The Brutalist chronicles the story of László Tóth, a visionary Hungarian-Jewish architect and Holocaust survivor, who, alongside his wife Erzsébet, seeks to reconstruct their lives in post-war America. Their tumultuous journey takes a transformative turn when the enigmatic industrialist Harrison Lee Van Buren offers László a commission that promises to redefine their lives as immigrants and change the paradigm of modern brutalist architecture. This story has been empathetically narrated through the superlative performances of Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce who have each been nominated in their respective category. Furthermore, the film also executes technical mastery with a majestic score, production design and cinematography making it a well-round film that I believe is the most worthy of the night’s top prize. Beyond ticking the boxes of cinematic excellence, the film captures the birth of Modern America as it transitions from its old wild western days to a cosmopolitan capitalist urbanscape. This transformation is captured through László’s story, whose attempt to seek freedom in the American Dream is interrupted when he confronts the gritty realism of US Capitalism that hurts the people living on the fringes of society.
Another stand-out feature is The Substance, an inventive body-horror masterpiece that brutally tackles issues of body image, industrial beauty standards and aging through a feminine perspective whilst critiquing the power play between artists, producers and shareholders. Directed by Coralie Fargeat, The Substance delves into the harrowing journey of Elisabeth Sparkle, portrayed by Demi Moore, a once-celebrated Hollywood starlet who, upon being dismissed from her long-standing aerobics show due to ageism, resorts to a clandestine drug promising rejuvenation. This experimental serum bifurcates her existence, birthing a younger alter ego named Sue, portrayed by Margaret Qualley. Bound by the stringent “seven-day rule” Elisabeth and Sue must alternate consciousness weekly; failure to adhere results in catastrophic physical degeneration. It is an out-of-the-box and monumental achievement that a film that oddly reflects the style and principles of French Extremity Body Horror is being recognised by the academy. Fargeat masterfully executes her vision alongside superlative performances by Demi Moore and Margaret Qualley as well as technical mastery in fields like editing, score and makeup and hairstyling. Through her unprecedented film, Fargeat’s message remains straightforward in rendering the internal violence women have against their bodies when their self image fails to remain congruent with their ideal image that is socially-constructed to reflect the absurd beauty standards of society, which in the film’s case is being specifically highlighted with regards to the Hollywood Film industry.
France’s submission to the Oscars, Emilia Pérez, is another outstanding endeavour that establishes itself in cinematic history as a resilient film that defies categorisation. Directed by Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez weaves the gripping tale Rita, a brilliant yet struggling lawyer, who finds herself entangled in a dangerous Mexican underworld when she is hired by a cartel leader, Manitas, who seeks her expertise in faking his death and transitioning into a woman, Emilia Pérez, in order to escape his life of crime and undo his past wrongdoings. Instantly, we are introduced to a morally questionable premise in which a fundamentally immoral character is granted a redemption arc working against the laws of morality. Despite being hailed and embraced by industry guilds, Emilia Pérez faced waves of controversy, criticised for its perceived lack of authentic Mexican and transgender representation, sparking heated debates over cultural appropriation and the reinforcement of harmful stereotypes. However, I believe the outrage over this film stems from a fundamental misunderstanding of the film’s core humanistic themes as we operate within a divisive political environment in which we overemphasise cultural and political correctness over empathising with the narrative of a film. At its heart, I believe Emilia Pérez is one of the most bold and provocative films of the 21st century that deserves its many accolades and honours irrespective of the outrage.
Conclave, directed by Edward Berger, offers an intimate glimpse into the secretive world of the Vatican’s papal election, weaving a narrative rich in suspense and character complexity. The papal thriller begins with the sudden death of the Pope, prompting the College of Cardinals to convene in a secluded conclave to elect his successor. Among the prominent contenders are Cardinal Aldo Bellini (Stanley Tucci), a progressive voice advocating for modernization; Cardinal Joshua Adeyemi (John Lithgow), a socially conservative figure with a strong moral stance; Cardinal Joseph Tremblay (Ralph Fiennes), representing moderate views; and Cardinal Goffredo Tedesco (Sergio Castellitto), a staunch traditionalist yearning for a return to old rituals. The arrival of the mysterious Archbishop Vincent Benitez (Isabela Rossellini), appointed secretly by the late Pope, adds an unexpected twist to the proceedings. As the cardinals navigate political manoeuvring, personal revelations and ethical dilemmas, the film masterfully portrays the tension and gravity of their decision-making process. The narrative is further enriched by stunning cinematography that captures the grandeur of the Vatican and a haunting score that underscores the film’s dramatic moments. Conclave has garnered critical acclaim for its compelling storytelling and exceptional performances, earning it a place among the notable Best Picture nominees at the 2025 Academy Awards.
Our final stand-out feature and the predicted winner of the best picture race, Anora, directed by Sean Baker, is a compelling comedy-drama that delves into the complexities of love, power and class within the vibrant Russian-American community of Brighton Beach. The film follows Ani, portrayed by Mikey Madison, a naïve lap dancer whose life takes an unexpected turn when she marries Vanya, the son of a Russian oligarch. This union propels Ani into a world of opulence and intrigue, challenging her perceptions and resilience. Baker’s direction seamlessly blends elements of screwball comedy with social realism, creating a narrative that is both entertaining and thought-provoking. The film’s authenticity is further enhanced by its diverse New York settings, capturing the essence of the city’s multifaceted culture. Madison’s performance has been widely acclaimed, earning her a BAFTA award and an Academy Award nomination for Best Actress. Anora has also achieved significant box office success, grossing over $40 million worldwide, a testament to its broad appeal and critical acclaim.