The Year with No Front-Runner: My Predictions for the 2025 Oscars

The Year with No Front-Runner: My Predictions for the 2025 Oscars

In contrast to previous years, in which the Oscars followed a predictable trajectory through the emergence of a clear front-runner, the 2025 awards season has been anything but conventional. One leading indicator of the Best Picture Front-Runner is the film that leads the pack with the most nominations which in this year was taken by Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Pérez”  that scored an impressive 13 nominations. However the film’s course has been marked by controversy following the waves of outrage that erupted due to its issues concerning cultural appropriation and a recent PR disaster involving its lead actress’s offensive tweets that may have curtailed its chances of taking home the top prize. Another leading indicator are precursor wins through award shows like the BAFTA and Golden Globes which foreshadow best picture favourites. This year, while The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez took home the top honours at the Golden Globes, Anora scored at the DGA and PGA awards which was further complicated by Conclave winning the top prizes at the SAG and BAFTA awards. If I were to analogise this year’s Oscar race I would perceive it as a high-stakes poker game -each contender holding strong cards, but none with an unbeatable hand. Like Cardinal Lawrence reiterates in Conclave, as the night approaches, the only certainty is uncertainty. In this article, I present my predictions on who is likely to take home the main prizes the major film categories, specifically with regards to who is predicted to win, who could surprise us and who truly deserves to take home the honour in my humble opinion.

Acting Awards

It is a strong year for acting with potential locks for the supporting categories in which Zoe Saldaña from Emilia Pérez and Kieran Culkin from A Real Pain have  swept major precursor awards from the Golden Globes to the BAFTAs and are in a strong position to win within their respective categories. Meanwhile the lead acting categories demonstrate a mixed narrative. While Adrien Brody from The Brutalist was the assumed front-runner, it was not until last week’s SAG awards that Timothée Chalamet from A Complete Unknown pulled off a surprise win that has brought him back to the race. Both actors have delivered powerful performances with Brody’s emotional embodiment of the plight of an immigrant and Chalamet’s characterisation of Bob Dylan demonstrating strenuous commitment. The lead actress category is more convoluted creating a three way race between Demi Moore (The Substance), Mikey Madison (Anora) and Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) who each deliver superlative performances. While Demi Moore has a slight edge due to her career narrative of making a comeback performance, the night is up for a surprise in this particular category.

Technical Awards

Technical categories like editing, cinematography, sound and visual effects are voted by specialist guilds due to their scientific nature entailing the most rational judgement. This years frontrunners are The Brutalist, Dune Part 2, Wicked and The Substance who each seem to be partially locked across several categories. While Dune Part 2  leads in categories like Sound and Visual Effects, The Brutalist is predicted for a win in Cinematography. Meanwhile, Wicked, could easily pull of a win in Production and Costume Design, if unpressured by Nosferatu or The Brutalist, recognising its almost whimsical and alluring depiction of the land of Oz. One of the most obvious locks however is The Substance winning for Best Makeup and Hairstyling which is easily evident with the raw and rugged brutality of its characters when portrayed in horrific sequences. 

Musical Awards 

The past year has been great for Musicals marked by the first time in 55+ years, the academy recognised two musicals, Wicked and Emilia Pérez, in the Best Picture category. However, given Wicked was a cinematic re-enactment of a Broadway musical, its lack of original songs would mean it would have to wait until its sequel in which it would be in a better place to win its musical awards. In terms of original score, the current front-runner is The Brutalist who in a majestic cadence of musical pieces truly uncover the raw emotions, thoughts and states of an immigrant as he navigates the chaos of survival in Modern-Day America. Meanwhile,  for original song, El Mal from Emilia Pérez has captivated awards shows likely due to its invigorating tone and lyrical narrative that serves as a metaphor for the corruption that lingers beneath drug cartels in Mexico. The only way El Mal could loose is if the academy decides to give out a career win to Diane Warren for her song The Journey from Six Triple Eight although the odds of this happening are extremely unlikely. 

Writing Awards

The cruciality of screenwriting can never be understated in how they spring characters and ideological themes to life. This year features strong contenders vying for recognition in both the Original and Adapted Screenplay categories. In Adapted Screenplay, Conclave has emerged as a major player, having won major precursors , making it a compelling choice for the Academy. Meanwhile, in the Original Screenplay race, the frontrunners appear to be Anora, having won the recognition of the WGA,  although A Real Pain and The Substance could pull off a possible upset. The contenders for original screenplay feature fast-paced narratives and have introspective layers of creativity that make them truly original. While Conclave seems to be fully locked for adapted screenplay, it remains to see whether Anora or A Real Pain could win the original screenplay category.

Feature Awards

Moving from acting, technical, writing and musical awards, the tightest races of this year’s Oscars would play out in the Best Picture, International Film and Animated Feature Film categories. For Animated Feature, it is a two-way race between Flow and The Wild Robot where the Academy is likely to prefer the latter given it is a domestic film and has lead its way through precursor awards like the Annie Awards. Similarly, for International Film, the race is between Emilia Pérez (France) and I’m Still Here (Brazil) for which the latter may win if the controversies surrounding the former would mitigate its chances at winning any awards during the Oscars. Finally, when it comes to Best Picture, it is safe to say that Emilia Pérez has left the race and what is revealed is weak three-way race between The Brutalist, Conclave and Anora for which Anora is an obvious frontrunner given its performance at the DGA and PGA awards. However, unlike Oppenheimer‘s sweep in 2024, this year a single film cannot be betted to take the top prize and it remains to see which film the Academy would crown on the 2nd of March 2025.

The 97th Oscars: My Predictions for Film Categories